Our probabilities · no odds, ever
Our model's chance for every team still standing in the 2026 World Cup — updated after every match. Not a bookmaker's board; these are our probabilities, and we'll grade them in public.
Our model's estimate · updated after every match
Our own model plays out every remaining game through the real bracket to give each team its chance of lifting the trophy. It accounts for all 31 knockout results so far — finished ties are fixed, and a team that's out is out.
Tap any team to see why — its strength, the path from here, where its run most likely ends, and the shootout luck it'd need to survive.
Computed · 1 teams still in it
| Rank | Team | To win | Final | Semis | Quarters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Most likely finishWins the World Cup · 100% How we get this number Our model rates every team's strength from 49,000+ real match results (Elo), plus chance-quality and set-piece adjustments. It then plays out every remaining bracket path — real opponents at real stadiums, host advantage included, extra time modelled and penalty shootouts treated as near coin-flips. Spain’s figure is the sum of every path where they lift the trophy, and the round-by-round percentages above multiply together to get there. Full method → | |||||
Even Spain, our current favourite, is only about 100.0%. Knockout football runs through near-coin-flip penalty shootouts, and a title run has to survive several of them — so no single team is anywhere near a lock. These are honest probabilities, not a betting board. No odds, ever.
Out · Group stage · 16
Out · Round of 32 · 16
Out · Round of 16 · 8
Out · Quarter-finals · 4
Out · Semi-finals · 2
Out · Runner-up · 1