Premier League · 2026-27 · matchday 11

The table

Where the Premier League actually stands — and, below it, where our model thinks it ends up. One is a fact, the other is an estimate, and we keep them apart.

As it stands

the real table · not ours

Premier League 2026-27 league table — position, played, won, drawn, lost, goals for, goals against, goal difference and points.
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	15	5	+10	27
2	Brighton & Hove Albion	10	7	1	2	26	7	+19

Where we think it ends

our estimate

Today's real points plus the points we expect each club to take from their remaining fixtures — three points for every bit of win probability, one for every bit of draw probability, summed across the run-in. It is an estimate, not a prediction of exact finishing positions, and it moves every week.

Our projected final Premier League 2026-27 table — a model estimate of where each club finishes, from today's real points plus the points we expect them to take from their remaining fixtures. Not a prediction of exact finishing positions.
#	Club	Now	Left

Estimates, not guarantees. WisePicks is a football fan dashboard, not a betting product. We don't show odds or encourage gambling. See our public record for how these calls have actually done.

3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	21	13	+8	21

4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	14	10	+4	18

5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	19	16	+3	16

6	Everton	10	4	4	2	12	10	+2	16

7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	16	14	+2	15

8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	16	11	+5	14

9	Leeds United	10	3	5	2	10	8	+2	14

10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	14	17	-3	13

11	Tottenham Hotspur	10	3	3	4	10	11	-1	12

12	Newcastle United	10	3	3	4	13	16	-3	12

13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	11	11	0	11

14	Ipswich Town	10	3	2	5	15	20	-5	11

15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	10	12	-2	10

16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	9	13	-4	9

17	Coventry City	10	3	0	7	10	19	-9	9

18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	14	19	-5	8

19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	8	17	-9	8

20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	10	24	-14	7

1	Arsenal	27	28	53.9	81	—
2	Manchester City	21	28	55.3	76	up 1 from their current position
3	Brighton & Hove Albion	22	28	45.5	67	down 1 from their current position
4	Liverpool	18	28	45.5	64	—
5	Bournemouth	15	28	41.6	57	up 2 from their current position
6	Brentford	14	28	42.4	56	up 2 from their current position
7	Leeds United	14	28	40.5	55	up 2 from their current position
8	Everton	16	28	38.1	54	down 2 from their current position
9	Chelsea	16	28	38.0	54	down 4 from their current position
10	Aston Villa	13	28	39.8	53	—
11	Manchester United	8	28	43.7	52	up 7 from their current position
12	Newcastle United	12	28	37.2	49	—
13	Nottingham Forest	9	28	37.0	46	up 3 from their current position
14	Fulham	10	28	32.9	43	up 1 from their current position
15	Sunderland	8	28	34.7	43	up 4 from their current position
16	Tottenham Hotspur	12	28	28.7	41	down 5 from their current position
17	Crystal Palace	7	28	33.2	40	up 3 from their current position
18	Ipswich Town	11	28	27.3	38	down 4 from their current position
19	Hull City	11	28	27.1	38	down 6 from their current position
20	Coventry City	9	28	25.4	34	down 3 from their current position

Built from 280 of 280 remaining fixtures — the ones we have a read for. We use the full probability of each result rather than picking a winner, because our model rarely makes a draw its most likely outcome: adding up “who we'd pick” would quietly overstate the top of the table. About 27% of Premier League matches end level, and our model almost never makes a draw its most likely outcome — so those are matches we effectively don't call. We grade them like any other: a draw we didn't call is a miss.

As it standsAs it stands

Where we think it endsWhere we think it ends

As it stands

Where we think it ends