Today's matches
Matchday 33Upcoming
SV Werder Bremen vs Schalke 04 — match prediction
· Kicks off in 5498h 34m
Home advantage: SV Werder Bremen
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
SV Werder Bremen 46%, draw 24%, Schalke 04 29%.
Model comparison
1.81Expected goals1.41
57%Projected control43%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 62% · Under 2.5: 38%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- high
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: SV Werder Bremen 1441 vs Schalke 04 1425 (gap ~16).
- SV Werder Bremen gets a home-venue bump.
- low data quality — SV Werder Bremen 106 matches of history, Schalke 04 4. We have barely seen FC Schalke 04 at this level — their rating is carried over from a lower division and could be well off. Wider uncertainty than usual.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedBremen edges this one on home soil and model lean, yet the gap is genuinely narrow. Schalke arrive with enough attacking threat to punish a slip. Volatile conditions and low data quality mean one lapse could flip the outcome either way.
Key matchup
Bremen's slight territorial advantage against Schalke's capacity to exploit space on the break.
Biggest factor
The model's low confidence reflects how thin the margins are — a coin-flip with a slight home tilt.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.