Today's matches
Matchday 26Upcoming
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln — match prediction
· Kicks off in 3986h 33m
Home advantage: Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 62%, draw 21%, 1. FC Köln 17%.
Model comparison
2.16Expected goals1.06
68%Projected control32%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 62% · Under 2.5: 38%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- high
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1566 vs 1. FC Köln 1429 (gap ~137).
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Bayer 04 Leverkusen 106 matches of history, 1. FC Köln 72. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedLeverkusen are clear favourites with superior attacking threat and midfield control, but the most-likely score is a draw—Köln's compact shape at home can frustrate and steal a result. Expect high tempo and intensity; one clinical moment could settle it either way.
Key matchup
Leverkusen's attacking rhythm against Köln's organised defensive structure.
Biggest factor
Leverkusen's quality edge is real, yet Köln's home compactness makes them dangerous on the break.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.