Today's matches
Matchday 24Upcoming
SV 07 Elversberg vs RB Leipzig — match prediction
· Kicks off in 3746h 35m
Home advantage: SV 07 Elversberg
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
SV 07 Elversberg 30%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig 46%.
Model comparison
1.42Expected goals1.80
44%Projected control56%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 62% · Under 2.5: 38%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- high
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: SV 07 Elversberg 1425 vs RB Leipzig 1556 (gap ~131).
- SV 07 Elversberg gets a home-venue bump.
- low data quality — SV 07 Elversberg 4 matches of history, RB Leipzig 106. We have barely seen SV 07 Elversberg at this level — their rating is carried over from a lower division and could be well off. Wider uncertainty than usual.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedLeipzig arrive as clear favourites with superior firepower and control, but Elversberg at home have the compact shape to frustrate. A volatile match where one set-piece or counter could crack it open — the model's confidence is low, and the most likely outcome defies the favourites.
Key matchup
Leipzig's attacking ambition versus Elversberg's organisation and willingness to compress space.
Biggest factor
Low model confidence signals a match where chance and execution trump the underlying quality gap.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.