Today's matches
Matchday 21Upcoming
Augsburg vs SV Werder Bremen — match prediction
· Kicks off in 3314h 35m
Home advantage: Augsburg
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Augsburg 48%, draw 24%, SV Werder Bremen 28%.
Model comparison
1.85Expected goals1.37
57%Projected control43%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 62% · Under 2.5: 38%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- high
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Augsburg 1478 vs SV Werder Bremen 1441 (gap ~37).
- Augsburg gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Augsburg 106 matches of history, SV Werder Bremen 106. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedAugsburg hold a slight edge at home—better-ranked, more lethal in front of goal, and the model gives them the ball more often. Werder Bremen are no pushovers and will hunt chances on the break. A tight, high-tempo affair where margins are thin.
Key matchup
Augsburg's attacking threat versus Werder Bremen's compact defensive shape.
Biggest factor
Low model confidence signals this is far tighter than the raw numbers suggest—volatile, unpredictable, decided by small moments.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.