Today's matches
Matchday 12Upcoming
Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln — match prediction
· Kicks off in 1634h 35m
Home advantage: Augsburg
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Augsburg 53%, draw 23%, 1. FC Köln 24%.
Model comparison
1.96Expected goals1.26
61%Projected control39%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 62% · Under 2.5: 38%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- high
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Augsburg 1478 vs 1. FC Köln 1429 (gap ~49).
- Augsburg gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Augsburg 106 matches of history, 1. FC Köln 72. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedAugsburg hold the edge at home—better Elo, sharper attacking output, and likely to dictate possession. Köln will look to stay organised and hit on the break. The model's most-likely outcome is a draw, though, which tells you everything: this is closer than Augsburg's underlying advantage suggests.
Key matchup
Augsburg's attacking threat against Köln's defensive shape and transition game.
Biggest factor
Home advantage and Augsburg's superior control, offset by Köln's defensive discipline and low confidence in any single outcome.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.