Today's matches
Matchday 35Upcoming
CA Osasuna vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol — match prediction
· Kicks off in 4252h 8m
Home advantage: CA Osasuna
Toss-up
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
CA Osasuna 37%, draw 28%, Real Sociedad de Fútbol 36%.
Model comparison
1.35Expected goals1.33
50%Projected control50%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Under 2.5: 50%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: CA Osasuna 1458 vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1467 (gap ~9).
- CA Osasuna gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — CA Osasuna 121 matches of history, Real Sociedad de Fútbol 121. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedOsasuna hold a slim edge at home — marginally favoured in Elo and expected output — yet this is genuinely competitive. Real Sociedad will press and probe; Osasuna's slight possession advantage could prove decisive if they convert territory into chances. Expect a tight, open contest where neither side is confident of control.
Key matchup
Osasuna's ability to turn home advantage into sustained pressure against Real Sociedad's disciplined, threatening shape.
Biggest factor
The model flags high upset risk: a narrow gap and balanced play mean Real Sociedad can absolutely win despite the lean.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.