Today's matches
Matchday 33Upcoming
Valencia CF vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — match prediction
· Kicks off in 4922h 38m
Home advantage: Valencia CF
Toss-up
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Valencia CF 36%, draw 28%, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 36%.
Model comparison
1.34Expected goals1.34
50%Projected control50%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Under 2.5: 50%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Valencia CF 1506 vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1496 (gap ~10).
- Valencia CF gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Valencia CF 121 matches of history, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 121. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedValencia hold a slim edge at home—marginally stronger in possession and shot-creation—but this is a tight contest with genuine upset risk. Rayo will press high and look to catch Valencia on transition; the hosts must control tempo to convert their slight dominance into clear chances.
Key matchup
Valencia's ability to build from the back under Rayo's high press will set the tone for the entire match.
Biggest factor
The model's low confidence signals how wafer-thin the margins are; one defensive lapse or clinical finish can flip the result.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.