Today's matches
Matchday 31Upcoming
Sevilla vs RC Deportivo La Coruña — match prediction
· Kicks off in 4682h 38m
Home advantage: Sevilla
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Sevilla 50%, draw 27%, RC Deportivo La Coruña 24%.
Model comparison
1.62Expected goals1.05
58%Projected control42%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Under 2.5: 50%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Sevilla 1482 vs RC Deportivo La Coruña 1425 (gap ~57).
- Sevilla gets a home-venue bump.
- low data quality — Sevilla 121 matches of history, RC Deportivo La Coruña 7. We have barely seen RC Deportivo La Coruña at this level — their rating is carried over from a lower division and could be well off. Wider uncertainty than usual.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedSevilla hold a modest edge at home—better squad depth, sharper finishing, control of possession. Deportivo will hunt for scraps on the break, but this fixture is genuinely unpredictable. The model's confidence is low; fine margins rule the night.
Key matchup
Sevilla's front third efficiency against Deportivo's compact defensive shape.
Biggest factor
Low data quality means the model itself doubts its own lean—treat this as a genuine contest.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
Share card
Or screenshot the card — the honesty note travels with it.
Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.