Today's matches
Matchday 18Upcoming
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs CA Osasuna — match prediction
· Kicks off in 1228h 8m
Home advantage: Real Sociedad de Fútbol
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Real Sociedad de Fútbol 50%, draw 27%, CA Osasuna 24%.
Model comparison
1.62Expected goals1.05
58%Projected control42%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Under 2.5: 50%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1467 vs CA Osasuna 1458 (gap ~9).
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Real Sociedad de Fútbol 121 matches of history, CA Osasuna 121. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedReal Sociedad hold a marginal edge at home, but this is far closer than the venue suggests. Osasuna arrive competitive and organised; Real Sociedad will probe, but without a commanding grip on the game. Fine margins and a volatile match await.
Key matchup
Real Sociedad's attacking craft in the final third against Osasuna's disciplined, compact shape.
Biggest factor
Real Sociedad's slight home advantage and ball control are blunted by Osasuna's ability to stay in the contest.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.