Today's matches
Matchday 16Upcoming
Levante UD vs Deportivo Alavés — match prediction
· Kicks off in 724h 8m
Home advantage: Levante UD
Toss-up
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Levante UD 39%, draw 28%, Deportivo Alavés 34%.
Model comparison
1.39Expected goals1.28
51%Projected control49%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Under 2.5: 50%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Levante UD 1455 vs Deportivo Alavés 1486 (gap ~31).
- Levante UD gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Levante UD 44 matches of history, Deportivo Alavés 121. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedLevante hold a marginal edge at home, but this is genuinely close — the model barely separates them. Alavés will press high and disrupt; Levante need to control tempo and convert chances. Fine margins throughout.
Key matchup
Levante's midfield composure versus Alavés's aggressive pressing intensity.
Biggest factor
The model's low confidence here reflects genuine uncertainty — home advantage is thin when teams are this evenly matched.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.