Today's matches
Matchday 14Upcoming
Real Betis Balompié vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — match prediction
· Kicks off in 1490h 37m
Home advantage: Real Betis Balompié
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Real Betis Balompié 56%, draw 25%, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 19%.
Model comparison
1.75Expected goals0.92
61%Projected control39%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Under 2.5: 50%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Real Betis Balompié 1552 vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1496 (gap ~56).
- Real Betis Balompié gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Real Betis Balompié 121 matches of history, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 121. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedReal Betis hold a modest but real edge at home — better control, sharper attack, the model's lean is clear. Rayo will press high and hunt transitions; Betis must convert their dominance into goals before one counter changes everything.
Key matchup
Betis's creative midfield against Rayo's aggressive press in the opening exchanges.
Biggest factor
Betis's home ground and superior attacking output, tempered by how volatile this fixture looks.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.