Today's matches
Matchweek 36Upcoming
Sunderland vs Bournemouth — match prediction
· Kicks off in 5513h 9m
Home advantage: Sunderland
Toss-up
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Sunderland 34%, draw 27%, Bournemouth 39%.
Model comparison
1.34Expected goals1.45
48%Projected control52%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 53% · Under 2.5: 47%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Sunderland 1610 vs Bournemouth 1685 (gap ~75).
- Sunderland gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Sunderland 43 matches of history, Bournemouth 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedBournemouth arrive with a clear technical edge — sharper in possession, more clinical in front of goal. Sunderland's home advantage and compact shape offer a genuine lifeline, but they'll need to be ruthless on the counter. The upset is alive, yet the visitor's quality leans the night their way.
Key matchup
Bournemouth's fluid midfield against Sunderland's need to disrupt and transition quickly.
Biggest factor
Bournemouth's superior control and efficiency — they create more, they finish better.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.