Today's matches
Matchweek 32Upcoming
Ipswich Town vs Manchester United — match prediction
· Kicks off in 4841h 8m
Home advantage: Ipswich Town
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Ipswich Town 23%, draw 26%, Manchester United 52%.
Model comparison
1.07Expected goals1.72
40%Projected control60%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 53% · Under 2.5: 47%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Ipswich Town 1558 vs Manchester United 1700 (gap ~142).
- Ipswich Town gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Ipswich Town 43 matches of history, Manchester United 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedManchester United hold a clear edge in quality and control, but this is volatile territory — the model's confidence is modest, and Ipswich at home have the compact shape to frustrate. A draw sits right in the likely outcomes, proof that the favourite can easily slip.
Key matchup
Manchester United's possession dominance against Ipswich's ability to turn defence into quick, dangerous transitions.
Biggest factor
The gap in class is real, but home advantage and volatility mean one tactical moment or a single chance can flip the script entirely.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.