Today's matches
Matchweek 30Upcoming
Hull City vs Chelsea — match prediction
· Kicks off in 4170h 9m
Home advantage: Hull City
Toss-up
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Hull City 29%, draw 27%, Chelsea 44%.
Model comparison
1.23Expected goals1.56
45%Projected control55%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 53% · Under 2.5: 47%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Hull City 1536 vs Chelsea 1656 (gap ~120).
- Hull City gets a home-venue bump.
- low data quality — Hull City 5 matches of history, Chelsea 119. We have barely seen Hull City AFC at this level — their rating is carried over from a lower division and could be well off. Wider uncertainty than usual.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedChelsea hold a clear edge in quality and should dominate possession, but Hull's compact shape and the model's volatile confidence mean one set-piece or counter can disrupt the script. The most-likely outcome is a draw — a sign this tie has more balance than Chelsea's rating alone suggests.
Key matchup
Chelsea's creative midfield against Hull's disciplined, narrow defensive block.
Biggest factor
Chelsea's superior talent should tell, but low data quality and balanced tempo leave room for Hull to frustrate and snatch something.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.