Today's matches
Matchweek 26Upcoming
Arsenal vs Fulham — match prediction
· Kicks off in 3498h 9m
Home advantage: Arsenal
One-sided
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Arsenal 65%, draw 22%, Fulham 13%.
Model comparison
2.01Expected goals0.79
69%Projected control31%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 53% · Under 2.5: 47%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Arsenal 1784 vs Fulham 1629 (gap ~156).
- Arsenal gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Arsenal 119 matches of history, Fulham 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedArsenal hold a commanding edge here — superior control, sharper attacking threat, the model backing their quality decisively. Fulham will need to stay compact, hit on transition, and hope for a mistake. But Fulham's underdog status doesn't mean they're helpless.
Key matchup
Arsenal's dominant midfield and attacking tempo against Fulham's need to compress space and catch them on the break.
Biggest factor
Arsenal's sustained pressure and chance creation — Fulham must weather the storm without breaking.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.