Today's matches
Matchweek 16Upcoming
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace — match prediction
· Kicks off in 1986h 10m
Home advantage: Sunderland
Toss-up
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Sunderland 44%, draw 27%, Crystal Palace 29%.
Model comparison
1.56Expected goals1.24
55%Projected control45%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 53% · Under 2.5: 47%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Sunderland 1610 vs Crystal Palace 1609 (gap ~0).
- Sunderland gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Sunderland 43 matches of history, Crystal Palace 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedTwo sides locked in the same tier, separated by almost nothing on the model's read. Sunderland hold a marginal edge at home with slightly sharper attacking threat, yet this is a genuine knife-edge — expect close margins and the kind of tight contest where one mistake tips the scales.
Key matchup
Sunderland's attacking press against Crystal Palace's ability to transition and punish space on the break.
Biggest factor
Home advantage and a whisker more attacking threat — but neither is enough to declare a favourite with confidence.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.