Today's matches
Matchweek 14Upcoming
Leeds United vs Ipswich Town — match prediction
· Kicks off in 1650h 9m
Home advantage: Leeds United
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Leeds United 58%, draw 24%, Ipswich Town 18%.
Model comparison
1.85Expected goals0.95
64%Projected control36%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 53% · Under 2.5: 47%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Leeds United 1648 vs Ipswich Town 1558 (gap ~90).
- Leeds United gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Leeds United 43 matches of history, Ipswich Town 43. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedLeeds hold a clear edge at home—superior Elo, sharper attacking threat, and the midfield lean. Ipswich will sit compact, hit on the break, and make Leeds work for openings. The model leans Leeds, but the confidence is moderate and the most likely outcome is a draw.
Key matchup
Leeds' forward pressure against Ipswich's compact, reactive shape.
Biggest factor
Leeds' home advantage and creative output, but Ipswich's discipline can steal a result.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.