Today's matches
Matchweek 11Upcoming
Aston Villa vs Sunderland — match prediction
· Kicks off in 1314h 10m
Home advantage: Aston Villa
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Aston Villa 48%, draw 26%, Sunderland 26%.
Model comparison
1.65Expected goals1.15
58%Projected control42%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 53% · Under 2.5: 47%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Aston Villa 1666 vs Sunderland 1610 (gap ~56).
- Aston Villa gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Aston Villa 119 matches of history, Sunderland 43. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedAston Villa hold a slight edge at home—better control, sharper finishing threat—but this is genuinely tight. Sunderland have the quality to make them uncomfortable and the model's confidence is low; expect a cagey, competitive midfield battle where one defensive slip decides it.
Key matchup
Aston Villa's attacking threat against Sunderland's ability to stay disciplined and transition on the break.
Biggest factor
The model sees fine margins here, which means set pieces, individual errors, and game state matter as much as quality.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.