Today's matches
Matchday 9Upcoming
Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain — match prediction
· Kicks off in 788h 37m
Home advantage: Le Havre AC
One-sided
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Le Havre AC 11%, draw 20%, Paris Saint-Germain 69%.
Model comparison
0.72Expected goals2.12
34%Projected control66%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 54% · Under 2.5: 46%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Le Havre AC 1445 vs Paris Saint-Germain 1623 (gap ~178).
- Le Havre AC gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Le Havre AC 107 matches of history, Paris Saint-Germain 107. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedParis Saint-Germain arrive as clear favourites with a commanding edge in class and firepower. Le Havre will need discipline and shape to frustrate a side built to break teams open. One lapse in concentration could be punished; one defensive stand might shift the momentum.
Key matchup
Paris's attacking threat against Le Havre's organisation and willingness to compact the space.
Biggest factor
Paris's superior attacking quality and control of possession — Le Havre's task is damage limitation.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.