Today's matches
Matchday 16Upcoming
AJ Auxerre vs ES Troyes AC — match prediction
· Kicks off in 2642h 37m
Home advantage: AJ Auxerre
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
AJ Auxerre 53%, draw 25%, ES Troyes AC 22%.
Model comparison
1.77Expected goals1.07
58%Projected control42%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 54% · Under 2.5: 46%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: AJ Auxerre 1468 vs ES Troyes AC 1427 (gap ~41).
- AJ Auxerre gets a home-venue bump.
- low data quality — AJ Auxerre 73 matches of history, ES Troyes AC 5. We have barely seen ES Troyes AC at this level — their rating is carried over from a lower division and could be well off. Wider uncertainty than usual.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedAuxerre hold a modest edge at home—better Elo, sharper finishing metrics, more control projected. But the model's confidence is thin; this feels like a game decided by thin margins and the bounce of the ball rather than clear separation.
Key matchup
Auxerre's ability to convert their expected dominance into chances against a Troyes side that will look to stay compact and steal on the break.
Biggest factor
Low data confidence means form swings and individual moments matter more than long-run patterns—a recipe for surprises.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.