Today's matches
Matchday 1Full time
AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina — match prediction
40Final score
· Full time
How our pre-match read held up
The actual result matched our pre-match call.
The prediction
Pre-match probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
AS Roma 67%, draw 22%, ACF Fiorentina 11%.
Model comparison
1.90Expected goals0.65
67%Projected control33%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: AS Roma 1583 vs ACF Fiorentina 1503 (gap ~80).
- AS Roma gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — AS Roma 119 matches of history, ACF Fiorentina 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedRoma start as slight favourites on their own ground, with a clearer attacking model and the edge in possession. Fiorentina will look to compress space and hit on transition — a common recipe that can stall the host's rhythm. This is competitive, not a coronation.
Key matchup
Roma's creative build-up against Fiorentina's disciplined, compact defensive shape.
Biggest factor
Roma's home advantage and superior attacking threat, tempered by Fiorentina's proven ability to frustrate.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Match stats
via FlashscoreReal measured stats for this match — shown for transparency. They are not part of the prediction above, which is a pre-match estimate from team ratings.
Match stats not available. They appear once a match is under way and Flashscore is carrying live stats for it — we never invent them.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.