Today's matches
Matchday 1Full time
Genoa CFC vs SSC Napoli — match prediction
02Final score
· Full time
How our pre-match read held up
The actual result matched our pre-match call.
The prediction
Pre-match probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Genoa CFC 17%, draw 25%, SSC Napoli 58%.
Model comparison
0.82Expected goals1.72
38%Projected control62%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Genoa CFC 1456 vs SSC Napoli 1592 (gap ~136).
- Genoa CFC gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Genoa CFC 119 matches of history, SSC Napoli 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedNapoli arrive with a commanding edge in class and control—the model gives them a clear advantage. Genoa will need to be compact and clinical on the break; one mistake against this firepower could be costly. Home turf offers hope, but Napoli's pedigree is the weight in this fixture.
Key matchup
Napoli's attacking rhythm against Genoa's ability to stay organised and hit on transition.
Biggest factor
Napoli's superior firepower and possession dominance—Genoa must make their chances count.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Match stats
via FlashscoreReal measured stats for this match — shown for transparency. They are not part of the prediction above, which is a pre-match estimate from team ratings.
Match stats not available. They appear once a match is under way and Flashscore is carrying live stats for it — we never invent them.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.