Today's matches
Matchday 9Upcoming
AS Roma vs Cagliari Calcio — match prediction
· Kicks off in 718h 23m
Home advantage: AS Roma
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
AS Roma 61%, draw 24%, Cagliari Calcio 15%.
Model comparison
1.79Expected goals0.76
64%Projected control36%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: AS Roma 1583 vs Cagliari Calcio 1476 (gap ~108).
- AS Roma gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — AS Roma 119 matches of history, Cagliari Calcio 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedRoma have the edge here—better Elo, sharper attack, and the home pitch tilts the balance their way. Cagliari will look to stay disciplined and hit on the break, but Roma's control and firepower give them a clear lean. One slip from the hosts opens a door.
Key matchup
Roma's attacking verve against Cagliari's compact, organised shape.
Biggest factor
Roma's home advantage and superior quality in the final third.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.