Today's matches
Matchday 12Upcoming
US Sassuolo Calcio vs Genoa CFC — match prediction
· Kicks off in 1336h 37m
Home advantage: US Sassuolo Calcio
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
US Sassuolo Calcio 49%, draw 27%, Genoa CFC 23%.
Model comparison
1.55Expected goals1.00
57%Projected control43%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: US Sassuolo Calcio 1462 vs Genoa CFC 1456 (gap ~6).
- US Sassuolo Calcio gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — US Sassuolo Calcio 81 matches of history, Genoa CFC 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedSassuolo edges this as the home side with marginally superior firepower, yet the model flags genuine upset risk. Genoa arrive as live competitors—this is no foregone conclusion. Fine margins separate them; possession alone won't settle it.
Key matchup
Sassuolo's attacking thrust versus Genoa's counter-pressing discipline in midfield.
Biggest factor
High upset risk means a single defensive lapse or clinical moment flips the script entirely.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.