Today's matches
Matchday 14Upcoming
Bologna FC 1909 vs AS Roma — match prediction
· Kicks off in 1630h 22m
Home advantage: Bologna FC 1909
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Bologna FC 1909 17%, draw 26%, AS Roma 57%.
Model comparison
0.84Expected goals1.71
38%Projected control62%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Bologna FC 1909 1516 vs AS Roma 1583 (gap ~68).
- Bologna FC 1909 gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Bologna FC 1909 119 matches of history, AS Roma 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedRoma arrive with a clear edge in quality and should control possession, yet Bologna's home ground and the model's flagged upset risk suggest this won't be a coronation. A tight, competitive affair where Roma are favoured but far from safe.
Key matchup
Roma's superior ball retention and tempo against Bologna's compact pressing and willingness to hit on transition.
Biggest factor
The model sees genuine upset potential here—Roma's quality edge is real, but Bologna at home can nick this.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.