Today's matches
Matchday 19Upcoming
Cagliari Calcio vs US Sassuolo Calcio — match prediction
· Kicks off in 2540h 7m
Home advantage: Cagliari Calcio
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Cagliari Calcio 46%, draw 28%, US Sassuolo Calcio 26%.
Model comparison
1.48Expected goals1.06
56%Projected control44%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Cagliari Calcio 1476 vs US Sassuolo Calcio 1462 (gap ~14).
- Cagliari Calcio gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Cagliari Calcio 119 matches of history, US Sassuolo Calcio 81. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedCagliari hold a modest home edge in quality and possession, but Sassuolo are live underdogs here — the model flags real upset risk. Expect a scrappy, open contest where either side can nick it; the most-likely outcome is a draw, and that tells you everything about the margin between them.
Key matchup
Cagliari's attacking thrust down the flanks against Sassuolo's compact, reactive shape.
Biggest factor
High upset risk and low confidence mean this game has the feel of a coin-flip masquerading as a home banker.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.