Today's matches
Matchday 33Upcoming
Venezia vs Torino — match prediction
· Kicks off in 5018h 39m
Home advantage: Venezia
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Venezia 27%, draw 28%, Torino 45%.
Model comparison
1.08Expected goals1.47
45%Projected control55%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Venezia 1412 vs Torino 1457 (gap ~45).
- Venezia gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Venezia 43 matches of history, Torino 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedTorino hold a modest edge in class and control, but this is no walkover — Venezia at home in a tight contest where fine margins rule. The model flags genuine upset potential; one slip and the home side punishes it.
Key matchup
Venezia's organised defensive shape against Torino's superior technical control and tempo.
Biggest factor
The home crowd and Venezia's willingness to commit can flip a narrow deficit into a result.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.