Today's matches
Matchday 35Upcoming
ACF Fiorentina vs AS Roma — match prediction
· Kicks off in 5354h 37m
Home advantage: ACF Fiorentina
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
ACF Fiorentina 16%, draw 25%, AS Roma 59%.
Model comparison
0.80Expected goals1.75
37%Projected control63%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: ACF Fiorentina 1503 vs AS Roma 1583 (gap ~80).
- ACF Fiorentina gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — ACF Fiorentina 119 matches of history, AS Roma 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedRoma come to Florence as clear favourites — superior Elo, more clinical attacking threat, and the model leans their way. Fiorentina at home will press and hunt for set-piece moments; Roma will control possession and look to exploit space on transition. A tight match, but Roma hold the edge.
Key matchup
Roma's attacking threat and pace on the break against Fiorentina's intensity and compactness in defence.
Biggest factor
Roma's superior pedigree and attacking output, though volatility means one defensive lapse either way can swing it.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.