Today's matches
Matchday 36Upcoming
US Sassuolo Calcio vs Venezia — match prediction
· Kicks off in 5522h 38m
Home advantage: US Sassuolo Calcio
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
US Sassuolo Calcio 58%, draw 25%, Venezia 17%.
Model comparison
1.72Expected goals0.83
62%Projected control38%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Moderate
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: US Sassuolo Calcio 1462 vs Venezia 1412 (gap ~50).
- US Sassuolo Calcio gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — US Sassuolo Calcio 81 matches of history, Venezia 43. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedSassuolo hold a modest edge at home—better Elo, more possession, sharper finishing metrics—but this is no foregone conclusion. Venezia will press and compact, hunting for transitions. The model flags volatility: fine margins separate all three outcomes.
Key matchup
Sassuolo's attacking threat against Venezia's ability to spring the counter and stay organised under pressure.
Biggest factor
Home advantage and superior personnel give Sassuolo the lean, but Venezia's defensive discipline keeps them very much in it.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
Share card
Or screenshot the card — the honesty note travels with it.
Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.