Today's matches
Matchday 38Upcoming
Cagliari Calcio vs AS Roma — match prediction
· Kicks off in 4756h 8m
Home advantage: Cagliari Calcio
Lean
The prediction
Win probability
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Cagliari Calcio 21%, draw 27%, AS Roma 53%.
Model comparison
0.93Expected goals1.62
41%Projected control59%
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Goals lean
Over 2.5 goals: 47% · Under 2.5: 53%.
At a glance
- Tempo
- balanced
- Confidence
- Low
Why this number
Why this number
- Elo ratings: Cagliari Calcio 1476 vs AS Roma 1583 (gap ~108).
- Cagliari Calcio gets a home-venue bump.
- high data quality — Cagliari Calcio 119 matches of history, AS Roma 119. Both clubs have a full record in this competition, so the ratings are well-established. The result is still inherently uncertain.
- Built from locked pre-match data: long-run team ratings, nudged only within tight caps by real, confirmed factors (never a guess) — see every one below.
Tactical read
Tactical read
AI-generatedRoma come to Sardinia with a clear edge — superior class, better control, and the attacking threat to expose Cagliari's backline. Cagliari will look to compact the space and strike on the break, but Roma's experience and midfield dominance make them the logical favourites.
Key matchup
Roma's ball progression against Cagliari's press and transition play.
Biggest factor
Roma's attacking quality and control — Cagliari's only path runs through defensive discipline and a clinical counter.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Context
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Confirmed lineups
via FlashscoreContext only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when it comes from a source we can tie to this exact fixture — our scheduled-venue data, the club's registered home ground, or a matched Flashscore event. We never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Share / sources
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Sources & freshness
- Fixtures: football-data.org (live)
- Model: Elo + margin-of-victory, chronological replay with season boundary (re-centre, regress, league-changer shrink) — club-tuned FairPlay model
- Ratings generated: 2026-09-21
- Page generated:
- Scope: full-time / regulation
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.