· Full time · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Right call — Spain through (won 1–0).
A knockout can't end level. This is each side's chance to go through — win in 90 minutes, in extra time, or on penalties. It's a different question from the win probability above, which is who wins the match in regulation.
Heads up: this tie has a real chance (about 15%) of going to penalties, and a shootout is close to a 50/50 — they're near-random, so we don't pretend to call them. The deeper a tie goes, the more it's a coin flip.
Who wins in normal time — the 90-minute win/draw/loss. “Who advances” above folds in extra time and penalties.
Portugal 21%, draw 27%, Spain 52%.
This is our latest read, with current confirmed team news folded into the model (see “What we considered” below). Our track record always grades the locked pre-match call we made before lineups were posted — so this number may differ slightly from the one on the results page. We never rewrite a locked prediction.
Every factor the model weighed for this match — including the ones worth nothing. Each is capped so it can nudge, never flip, a clear matchup. A “no change” line means we considered it and had no reliable data — that transparency is the point, not a gap.
Neutral venue — no host, no home-field advantage (0).
Spain arrive as clear favourites with superior Elo and a commanding edge in expected output. Portugal will look to compress space and hit on the transition—a familiar script. Yet volatility is baked in here, and the model's most-likely outcome is a draw.
Spain's possession dominance against Portugal's compact, counter-attacking shape.
Spain's vastly superior control and chance creation—but low model confidence signals this isn't a foregone conclusion.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Context only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event or it's in our scheduled-venue data — we never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Real measured stats for this match — shown for transparency. They are not part of the prediction above, which is a pre-match estimate from team ratings.
Match stats not available. They appear once a match is under way and Flashscore is carrying live stats for it — we never invent them.
Screenshot to share — the honesty note travels with it.
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Over 2.5 goals: 48% · Under 2.5: 52%.
Who advances
No confirmed lineup yet — not applied (0). We never guess at availability; we wait for the confirmed XI.
No confirmed lineup yet — not applied (0). We never guess at availability; we wait for the confirmed XI.
shorter-than-average squad (5 tallest outfielders ~187cm vs a ~190cm field) → -5 Elo set-piece nudge. Estimated from squad height (a rough proxy, weighted toward aerial defence); modest by design.
shorter-than-average squad (5 tallest outfielders ~190cm vs a ~190cm field) → -0 Elo set-piece nudge. Estimated from squad height (a rough proxy, weighted toward aerial defence); modest by design.
Over 18 tournament matches: xG-for 1.93/g, xG-against 1.41/g (xGD +0.52/g, +0.8 SD vs the field). Shrunk for a 18-game sample → +13 Elo. The team created better chances than it converted; a bounded, modest chance-quality nudge.
Over 21 tournament matches: xG-for 2.45/g, xG-against 1.55/g (xGD +0.91/g, +1.5 SD vs the field). Shrunk for a 21-game sample → +24 Elo. The team created better chances than it converted; a bounded, modest chance-quality nudge.
Disabled by flag (0).
Disabled by flag (0).
Disabled by flag (0).
Considered — deferred (0). Extreme heat/humidity mainly lowers tempo and scoring, not who wins; we don't apply it as an outcome factor.
Considered — no weather data for this venue/date (0). Weather only nudges the goal total; it does not move who wins.
Considered — no reliable neutral-venue crowd-composition data (0). We won't fabricate a partisan-crowd estimate.
Player availability uses a curated key-player heuristic against the confirmed starting XI (via Flashscore), not a fitted impact model. Weather is real match-day data from Open-Meteo and only nudges the goal total — its measured effect on who wins is ~zero. We only ever apply a factor on real, confirmed data; otherwise it is exactly 0.
At least one factor moved the prediction on real confirmed data; the rest were considered and contributed nothing.