· Full time · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Right call — England through (won 3–2).
A knockout can't end level. This is each side's chance to go through — win in 90 minutes, in extra time, or on penalties. It's a different question from the win probability above, which is who wins the match in regulation.
Heads up: this tie has a real chance (about 16%) of going to penalties, and a shootout is close to a 50/50 — they're near-random, so we don't pretend to call them. The deeper a tie goes, the more it's a coin flip.
Who wins in normal time — the 90-minute win/draw/loss. “Who advances” above folds in extra time and penalties.
Mexico 32%, draw 28%, England 39%.
This is our latest read, with current confirmed team news folded into the model (see “What we considered” below). Our track record always grades the locked pre-match call we made before lineups were posted — so this number may differ slightly from the one on the results page. We never rewrite a locked prediction.
Every factor the model weighed for this match — including the ones worth nothing. Each is capped so it can nudge, never flip, a clear matchup. A “no change” line means we considered it and had no reliable data — that transparency is the point, not a gap.
Mexico is the host nation: +55 Elo home-field advantage (applied in the goal model).
England arrive as slight favourites with superior Elo and possession strength, yet Mexico at home have the tactical nous and intensity to disrupt. The model flags genuine upset risk: this isn't a coronation. A tight, competitive match where one break could swing it either way.
England's midfield control against Mexico's ability to compress and counter from deeper positions.
Home advantage and Mexico's willingness to absorb pressure and strike—the model respects how unsettled this tie could become.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Context only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event or it's in our scheduled-venue data — we never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Real measured stats for this match — shown for transparency. They are not part of the prediction above, which is a pre-match estimate from team ratings.
Match stats not available. They appear once a match is under way and Flashscore is carrying live stats for it — we never invent them.
Screenshot to share — the honesty note travels with it.
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Over 2.5 goals: 48% · Under 2.5: 52%.
Who advances
No confirmed lineup, and no tracked key players for Mexico (0).
No confirmed lineup yet — not applied (0). We never guess at availability; we wait for the confirmed XI.
shorter-than-average squad (5 tallest outfielders ~187cm vs a ~190cm field) → -5 Elo set-piece nudge. Estimated from squad height (a rough proxy, weighted toward aerial defence); modest by design.
taller-than-average squad (5 tallest outfielders ~192cm vs a ~190cm field) → +4 Elo set-piece nudge. Estimated from squad height (a rough proxy, weighted toward aerial defence); modest by design.
Over 10 tournament matches: xG-for 1.26/g, xG-against 1.37/g (xGD -0.11/g, -0.3 SD vs the field). Shrunk for a 10-game sample → -4 Elo. The team ran hotter than its chance quality; a bounded, modest chance-quality nudge.
Over 26 tournament matches: xG-for 1.81/g, xG-against 1.33/g (xGD +0.48/g, +0.8 SD vs the field). Shrunk for a 26-game sample → +13 Elo. The team created better chances than it converted; a bounded, modest chance-quality nudge.
Disabled by flag (0).
Disabled by flag (0).
Disabled by flag (0).
Considered — deferred (0). Extreme heat/humidity mainly lowers tempo and scoring, not who wins; we don't apply it as an outcome factor.
Considered — no weather data for this venue/date (0). Weather only nudges the goal total; it does not move who wins.
Host-crowd effect is already counted inside Home advantage — not double-counted here (0).
Player availability uses a curated key-player heuristic against the confirmed starting XI (via Flashscore), not a fitted impact model. Weather is real match-day data from Open-Meteo and only nudges the goal total — its measured effect on who wins is ~zero. We only ever apply a factor on real, confirmed data; otherwise it is exactly 0.
At least one factor moved the prediction on real confirmed data; the rest were considered and contributed nothing.