Japan vs Sweden · WisePicks

Today's matches

Group F · Group StageUpcoming

Japan

Sweden

Thu, 23:00 UTC · Kicks off in 16h 18m · Venue TBD

Lean

Win probability

Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.

Head to head

1.72Expected goals0.88

64%Projected control36%

Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.

Most likely scorelines

Score	Probability
1–1	12.1%
1–0	11.9%
2–0	11.0%
2–1	9.7%
0–0	8.3%

Over 2.5 goals: 48% · Under 2.5: 52%.

Why this prediction?

Japan's 57% win probability is anchored in an Elo gap of ~142 points and a clear advantage in expected goals (1.72 to 0.88)
Projected 64% possession share gives Japan the platform to build pressure, though converting chances remains the open question
A 1-1 draw emerging as the most-likely single scoreline shows the model respects Sweden's defensive structure and the inherent randomness of goal-scoring
Low confidence (0.39) reflects high volatility—this is not a settled match despite Japan's statistical advantage

Tactical read

AI-generated

Japan enters with a 142-point Elo advantage and is projected to dominate possession (64% control) while generating nearly twice Sweden's expected goal output (1.72 vs 0.88). Sweden will likely sit deeper and look to exploit limited opportunities on the counter, relying on organised defending to stay compact.

Key matchup

Japan's attacking rhythm against Sweden's ability to absorb pressure and remain disciplined defensively will define the match. How effectively Sweden can transition from defence to quick attacks will determine whether they can capitalise on their limited chances.

Biggest factor

Japan's superior Elo rating and expected-goal advantage suggest a likely edge, but the model's modest confidence (0.39) and volatile risk rating reflect genuine uncertainty—the most-likely single score is actually 1-1, highlighting how evenly a draw could unfold despite the statistical lean toward Japan.

AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.

Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. Numbers come from a simple statistical model and are uncertain by design — never guaranteed. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.