· Full time · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
The result went against our pre-match lean — a reminder that any single match can defy the model. That uncertainty is expected, not a bug.
Full-time / regulation result. Sums to 100%.
Ecuador 24%, draw 27%, Germany 49%.
This is our latest read, with current confirmed team news folded into the model (see “What we considered” below). Our track record always grades the locked pre-match call we made before lineups were posted — so this number may differ slightly from the one on the results page. We never rewrite a locked prediction.
Expected goals and control are derived estimates from the model's ratings — indicative leans, not measured match stats.
Over 2.5 goals: 48% · Under 2.5: 52%.
Every factor the model weighed for this match — including the ones worth nothing. Each is capped so it can nudge, never flip, a clear matchup. A “no change” line means we considered it and had no reliable data — that transparency is the point, not a gap.
Neutral venue — no host, no home-field advantage (0).
Germany arrive as clear favourites with superior Elo pedigree and expected output, but Ecuador's compact shape and counter-threat mean this is far from a walkover. The model flags volatility — fine margins, and one clinical moment could flip the script.
Germany's possession dominance versus Ecuador's discipline in transition.
Germany's edge is real but modest; Ecuador's ability to stay organised and punish mistakes on the break.
AI-generated context based on a statistical model. Full-time/regulation result only. Not betting advice; no specific current team-news is used.
Display-only — none of this is used in the prediction above.
Context only — these confirmed lineups are not used in the prediction above. By kick-off, public team news is already reflected in any market line.
Lineups not available. We only show a confirmed starting XI when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event — we never guess or invent one.
Venue not available. We only show a stadium when we can match this exact fixture to a Flashscore event or it's in our scheduled-venue data — we never guess one.
Venue is shown for information only and is not used in the prediction.
Real measured stats for this match — shown for transparency. They are not part of the prediction above, which is a pre-match estimate from team ratings.
Match stats not available. They appear once a match is under way and Flashscore is carrying live stats for it — we never invent them.
Screenshot to share — the honesty note travels with it.
Predictions are estimates, not advice. WisePicks is a fan dashboard, not a betting product. The numbers come from a simple statistical model. They carry real uncertainty and can be wrong. We don't show odds or encourage gambling.
No confirmed lineup, and no tracked key players for Ecuador (0).
No confirmed lineup yet — not applied (0). We never guess at availability; we wait for the confirmed XI.
shorter-than-average squad (5 tallest outfielders ~189cm vs a ~190cm field) → -1 Elo set-piece nudge. Estimated from squad height (a rough proxy, weighted toward aerial defence); modest by design.
taller-than-average squad (5 tallest outfielders ~194cm vs a ~190cm field) → +7 Elo set-piece nudge. Estimated from squad height (a rough proxy, weighted toward aerial defence); modest by design.
Over 7 tournament matches: xG-for 1.68/g, xG-against 1.48/g (xGD +0.20/g, +0.3 SD vs the field). Shrunk for a 7-game sample → +3 Elo. The team created better chances than it converted; a bounded, modest chance-quality nudge.
Over 15 tournament matches: xG-for 1.96/g, xG-against 1.00/g (xGD +0.96/g, +1.6 SD vs the field). Shrunk for a 15-game sample → +23 Elo. The team created better chances than it converted; a bounded, modest chance-quality nudge.
Disabled by flag (0).
Disabled by flag (0).
Disabled by flag (0).
Considered — deferred (0). Extreme heat/humidity mainly lowers tempo and scoring, not who wins; we don't apply it as an outcome factor.
Considered — no weather data for this venue/date (0). Weather only nudges the goal total; it does not move who wins.
Considered — no reliable neutral-venue crowd-composition data (0). We won't fabricate a partisan-crowd estimate.
Player availability uses a curated key-player heuristic against the confirmed starting XI (via Flashscore), not a fitted impact model. Weather is real match-day data from Open-Meteo and only nudges the goal total — its measured effect on who wins is ~zero. We only ever apply a factor on real, confirmed data; otherwise it is exactly 0.
At least one factor moved the prediction on real confirmed data; the rest were considered and contributed nothing.